On Sunday, the Academy Awards ceremony airs on ABC at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Having reviewed all but one film nominated for Best Picture -- that film being "Philomena" because it never came to my area -- I decided to write my predictions for who will win this year.
First of all, know that what I think and what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences thinks are very different. According to Oscars.org, the awards are decided among people in the Academy. These are people who actually work in the film industry, who know exactly what it takes to make great movies.
I myself am just a film critic, an outside observer. I can speculate -- having seen a lot of movies -- but I do not know exactly what professionals who make the films think. I will do my best to put myself in the shoes of those who decide on the awards, but my own biases will also be there.
Another thing to note is I am not listing every single award. There are areas, such as costume design and film editing, that I know very little about.
For each category I will both make my prediction and say which film I would like to see win. Most of the time I agree with what I think will win, but I also want to give an honorable mention.
Writing Original Screenplay
Nominees: Erick Warren Singer and David O. Russel for "American Hustle”; Woody Allen for “Blue Jasmine"; Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack for “Dallas Buyers Club”; Spike Jonze for “Her”; Bob Nelson for “Nebraska”
When I first heard of this film, I thought it sounded very weird. However, I started seeing excellent ratings for the film, and when it came to my area, I had to see it.
The script is so well-written and the characters so well-developed that it makes a very odd concept believable. The story is ultimately about a man who has an intimate relationship with his computer in a not-too-distant future in which artificial intelligence is perfectly possible. That definitely sounds like a stupid premise, but once the computer starts talking, I could see why he would fall in love with “her.”
Writing Adapted Screenplay:
Nominees: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke for “Before Midnight"; Billy Ray for “Captain Phillips”; Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for “Philomena”; John Ridley for “12 Years a Slave”; and Terence Winter for “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Who will probably win: Terence Winter for “The Wolf of Wall Street”
The film is about the rise and fall of a very shady Wall Street tycoon named Jordan Belfort (Leonardo DiCaprio). While it was very long winded -- at just over three hours -- and filled with a little too much sex and nudity for my taste, the way it was written is very interesting. The dialogue is very witty, and it is one of those movies that knows it is a movie.
DiCaprio’s character breaks the fourth wall to talk to the audience in several scenes. His language is very conversational, and it is easy to see why people would fall for his charm. The film shows how despicable he is, but the dialogue is strong enough to where he is still likeable.
Nominees: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould for "Gravity"; Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds for "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"; Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick for "Iron Man 3"; Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier for "The Lone Ranger"; Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton for "Star Trek: Into Darkness"
Who will probably win: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould for "Gravity"
"Gravity" is entirely set in space around Earth's orbit. There are a lot of awesome visuals of explosions, stars in the distance and even lights on the surface. It all looks very real. There is no moment where I think it looks like CGI.
Who I would like to see win: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds for "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
I won't be disappointed to see "Gravity" win, but "The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug" features the most awesome, menacing dragon I have ever seen. The trailers do not do justice to the sheer enormity of him, and that combined with the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch makes him incredibly scary.
Music Original Song:
Nominees: "Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"; "The Moon Song" from "Her"; "Let it Go" from "Frozen"; "Happy" from "Despicable Me 2"
I actually had to look up the other songs because this is the only one out of the list I actually recognized. It has become incredibly popular. Anyone who spends any time on social media has seen several different covers, only one of which I think does any justice to the original song.
What I would like to see win: "Happy" from "Despicable Me 2"
This song has recently come on the radio station I listen to, but I had no idea it came from "Despicable Me 2." Every time I hear it, I feel the exact emotion described by its title. As good as "Let it Go" is, I am rooting for this one partly because I really like it and partly because I am a little tired of seeing all the covers from "Frozen's" song.
Cinematography
Nominees: Philippe Le Sourd for "The Grandmaster"; Emmanuel Lubezki for "Gravity"; Bruno Delbonnel for "Inside Llewyn Davis"; Phedon Papamichael for "Nebraska"; Roger A. Deakins for "Prisoners"
Who will probably win: Emmanuel Lubezki for "Gravity"
Part of what makes this film so great is the look of it. There are a lot of beautiful shots of earth and space as mentioned under "visual effects."
Who I would like to see win: Phedon Papamichael for "Nebraska"
Part of the charm from this movie is it is completely done in black-and-white. Despite this there are some very creative shots throughout. It makes a statement that a film can look interesting without color.
Animated Feature Film:
Nominees: “The Croods”; “Despicable Me 2”; “Ernest & Celestine”; “Frozen”; “The Wind Rises”
What will probably win: “Frozen”
What I would like to see win: "Frozen"
What I would like to see win: "Frozen"
“Frozen” seems like a no-brainer to me. The animation is very well-done, the comedy is very funny and the story has the best message I have seen come from a Disney princess movie. Furthermore, it is amazingly popular among audiences. It has made over $985 million worldwide.
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Nominees: Lupita Nyong’o for “12 Years a Slave”; Jennifer Lawrence for “American Hustle”; Sally Hawkins for “Blue Jasmine”; Julia Roberts for “August: Osage County”; June Squibb for “Nebraska”
Who will probably win: Jennifer Lawrence for “American Hustle”
Who I would like to see win: Jennifer Lawrence for "American Hustle"
Who I would like to see win: Jennifer Lawrence for "American Hustle"
It is just amazing to see the range of Jennifer Lawrence’s acting. She does an excellent job as Katniss Everdeen in “The Hunger Games” films, which is a very different character from who she plays in “American Hustle.” In that film, she is a dim-witted housewife who is constantly messing everything up. This makes for some very funny moments, and she is the best part of the show.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominees: Amy Adams for “American Hustle”; Cate Blanchett for “Blue Jasmine”; Sandra Bullock for “Gravity”; Judi Dench for “Philomena”; Meryl Streep for “August: Osage County”
Who will probably win: Cate Blanchett for "Blue Jasmine"
Who I would like to see win: Sandra Bullock for “Gravity”
This would not be an easy role to do. For a big chunk of the film, Bullock’s character is alone trying to navigate through space with nothing but her spacesuit. She pulls it off so believably that I would not be surprised to find out the movie really was filmed in space. Her performance is so intense that I was at the edge of my seat whenever she was on-screen alone. The other star of the film, George Clooney, is very needed to calm everything down.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi for “Captain Phillips”; Bradley Cooper for “American Hustle”; Michael Fassbender for “12 Years a Slave”; Jared Leto for “Dallas Buyers Club”; and Jonah Hill for “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto plays a transgendered man who has AIDS. I admit that I have not seen a lot of portrayals of transgendered people, but this one is very easy to sympathize with no matter how conservative one is. He sells himself as someone who identifies as a woman so well, that I actually thought he was one at first.
Who I would like to see win: Barkhad Abdi for "Captain Phillips"
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Matthew McConaughey for “Dallas Buyers Club”; Leonardo DiCaprio for “The Wolf of Wall Street”; Chiwetel Ejiofor for “12 Years a Slave”; Bruce Dern for “Nebraska”; Christian Bale for “American Hustle”
Who will probably win: Matthew McConaughey for “Dallas Buyers Club”
McConaughey definitely deserves it this year. One of the first scenes is him in a room with some other men. I was super confused at first because I knew the film starred him, but I was not sure which one he was. Not only does he do a great job in his portrayal of a bigoted, white, trailer-trash hick, he does this while also portraying a man who is sick with AIDS. There is also a very interesting dynamic he has towards the transgendered man played by Leto. At first, he is unfriendly towards the character, but the relationship changes throughout the film in a very believable and satisfying way.
I still would like seeing MConaughey win, but DiCaprio does an awesome job "The Wolf of Wall Street." He has been nominated three other times without winning. He is an all-around amazing actor who deserves an Oscar!
Directing:
Nominees: Martin Scorsese for “The Wolf of Wall Street”; Steve McQueen for “12 Years a Slave”; Alexander Payne for “Nebraska”; Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity”; David O. Russell for “American Hustle”
Who will probably win: Steve McQueen for “12 Years a Slave”
McQueen’s direction for this film is uncomfortable to watch, which is one of the reasons the film is so great. It is about a very serious issue that needs to be remembered so we, as human beings, do not do it again. One particularly memorable scene is a long, several-several minute shot of a man standing in a very precarious position trying to survive.
Best Picture:
Nominees: “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Gravity,” “Her,” “Nebraska,” “Philomena,” “12 Years a Slave” and “The Wolf of Wall Street”
What will probably win: “Dallas Buyers Club”
This is a very hard choice for me. While some of these films are better than others, it all came down to five for me. Those were “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Gravity,” “Her,” and “12 Years a Slave.” If “Dallas Buyers Club” does not win, I am confident it will be one of those five.
While “Dallas Buyers Club” is not the best constructed movie, it is very eye-opening and socially relevant. It deals with AIDS in the 1980s, when it was still newly discovered. It discusses the incorrect assumption people had at the time that only homosexuals could have it, and it goes into how unfair the Food and Drug Administration can be. Furthermore, it portrays homosexuals very tastefully. They are very human in this film, and this fact is not polarizing no matter what political orientation one may have. Overall, I walked out of the theatre after seeing this one with the feeling that I had learned a lot.
"Her" is a near-perfectly constructed film. Writer/director Spike Jonze created a futuristic world that looks like how things will be in the next 20 years. The dialogue is witty, the story is fascinating and there is an awesome overlying message about how relationships work that I had never thought about before.
A version of this article was originally published in "The Utah Statesman," a student-run newspaper at Utah State University on February 27, 2014.
Follow me on Twitter: @ChrisCampbell02
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